Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29a9…d05f other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$11
other 33% −$1
sports 3% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -5.0% -14.0% 17% 0% -13.2%
≤90d 6 -5.0% -14.0% 17% 0% -13.2%
all 20 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 5% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 5% -12.3%
10% -18.8% 0% -20.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -28.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage490d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $35 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $109 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $37 −$10 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $41 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $45 −$1 -1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jul 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 21 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 18 $6 −$1 -22%
Will George Simion win by over 18%? May 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? May 18 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft get traded? Apr 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $7 $0 +0%
San José State vs. Utah State Mar 04 $6 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $32 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $6 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $35 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $34 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $3 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $26 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $26 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $31 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $27 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $34 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $2 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $9 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $29 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $38 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $38 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $41 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $3 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $44 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $45 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.26 · official $35.26 (match) · 61 history records