Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
29 0x29aa…6286 crypto 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+5%) realized +$7 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.7% -2.5% 100% 20% -2.7%
≤30d 5 +7.7% -2.5% 100% 20% -2.7%
≤90d 5 +7.7% -2.5% 100% 20% -2.7%
all 5 +7.7% -2.5% 100% 20% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 20% -2.7%
10% -11.9% 0% -12.0%
15% -20.4% 0% -20.5%
20% -28.2% 0% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 82¢ 90¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $29 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $16 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.19 · official $22.40 · 14 history records