Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:04:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29ac…069b sports 207 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-0%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%20W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$18
sports 26% −$10
other 20% −$68
crypto 7% −$6
economics 5% −$4
world 5% −$4
culture 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -0.4% -9.9% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 207 -0.8% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses20 / 187
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)207 / 207
History coverage162d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 207 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $55 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 14 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 14 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 13 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $45 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $39 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $129 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $199 −$4 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 10 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $48 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $183 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $119 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 08 $44 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $44 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 07 $46 −$2 -3%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 07 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $433 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $244 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 05 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 04 $110 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $217 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 03 $189 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $247 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $120 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 01 $57 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 01 $55 −$3 -6%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $41 1h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $41 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL No 96¢ $29 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY No 96¢ $30 12d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $42 25d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $42 25d
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $32 36d
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $32 37d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 90¢ $45 37d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 91¢ $46 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 94¢ $42 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $43 37d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 37d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 37d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $14 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $41 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $41 38d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $35 38d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $11 38d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $24 38d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $40 38d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $40 38d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $35 38d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $35 38d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $35 38d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $35 39d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $42 39d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $42 39d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 39d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 919 history records