Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29ae…081c sports 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$92 (-16%) realized −$91 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%155W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$7
14 days−$27
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$84
sports 37% −$10
crypto 1% −$4
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +0.5% -9.1% 63% 60% -14.9%
≤30d 225 -7.7% -16.5% 57% 55% -24.8%
≤90d 274 -9.3% -18.0% 57% 54% -24.8%
all 274 -9.3% -18.0% 57% 54% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 54% -24.8%
10% -25.8% 48% -32.0%
15% -33.0% 36% -38.6%
20% -39.5% 25% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses155 / 119
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)274 / 281
History coverage38d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+232%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Iraq 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +47%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-3.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+3.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality - Gam Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$5 +42%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Portugal to score first vs. Nigeria? Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 54m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $1 57m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $1 58m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $1 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $1 18h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 67¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 21h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $1 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 21h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $2 27h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $1 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $2 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 38h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 38h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $1 38h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $1 44h
Game Handicap: ONIC (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) BUY Bigetron by Vitality 55¢ $1 45h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY ONIC 81¢ $1 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.32 · official $9.32 (match) · 503 history records