Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:07:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29b1…241e crypto 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (150 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$153 (+4%) realized +$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%86W / 80L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day150.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$577
politics 3% −$7
world 1% −$10
sports 1% −$3
other 1% −$21
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (150 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 44% +3.1%
≤30d 166 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 44% +3.1%
≤90d 166 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 44% +3.1%
all 166 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 44% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 44% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 39% -6.8%
15% -30.9% 30% -15.8%
20% -37.6% 21% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses86 / 80
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage4d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day150.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $154 −$20 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $204 +$66 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $257 +$158 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $203 +$64 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $134 +$83 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$29 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $97 +$41 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$20 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$21 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +21%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -36%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $56 +$23 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $53 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $52 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$30 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $56 −$25 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $40 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$21 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $415 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $267 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $217 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 727 history records