Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29b3…5cb1 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,177 (-58%) realized −$2,177 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,210
crypto 49% −$1,262
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-56.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -52.1% -56.7% 28% 25% -70.3%
≤30d 32 -52.1% -56.7% 28% 25% -70.3%
≤90d 32 -52.1% -56.7% 28% 25% -70.3%
all 32 -52.1% -56.7% 28% 25% -70.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.7% 25% -70.3%
10% ← realistic here -60.8% 19% -73.1%
15% -64.6% 16% -75.7%
20% -68.1% 12% -78.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$113 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $102 −$95 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $39 −$36 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $24 +$15 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$9 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $718 −$670 -93%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,938 −$1,210 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $44 −$41 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $55 −$50 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $54 +$42 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $38 −$35 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $108 −$76 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $106 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$20 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$23 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $39 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $39 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $718 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 31¢ $728 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,938 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $44 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $54 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $54 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $55 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $96 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $54 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $38 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $22 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $108 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $123 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $106 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $106 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records