Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x29b5…cc6c
sports · 272 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$103,429 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$98,689 · open −$4,739
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43,443
Realized−$98,689
Unrealized−$4,739
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses109 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$6,573
Open positions47
Markets (closed)226 / 272
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1,907
Trades / day580.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 47 History 226 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14,930
7 days−$98,689
14 days−$98,689
30 days−$98,689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) MOUZ 69¢ 100¢ $2,993 $4,338 +$1,345 (+45%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 38¢ 38¢ $4,199 $4,282 +$83 (+2%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) GenOne 67¢ 72¢ $3,947 $4,229 +$281 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 47¢ 60¢ $2,560 $3,272 +$712 (+28%)
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 73¢ 90¢ $2,198 $2,678 +$480 (+22%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Legacy 58¢ 60¢ $2,606 $2,657 +$51 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 56¢ 81¢ $1,744 $2,528 +$784 (+45%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 14¢ 14¢ $2,019 $1,934 −$85 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 31¢ 32¢ $1,889 $1,899 +$10 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 45¢ 100¢ $746 $1,657 +$911 (+122%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 45¢ 50¢ $1,366 $1,536 +$170 (+12%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 36¢ $1,357 $1,466 +$108 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner PARIVISION 51¢ 100¢ $658 $1,279 +$620 (+94%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 33¢ 32¢ $1,277 $1,257 −$19 (-2%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) PARIVISION 35¢ 100¢ $379 $1,090 +$710 (+187%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) MOUZ 65¢ 100¢ $497 $758 +$261 (+53%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 44¢ 42¢ $745 $711 −$34 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 19¢ 18¢ $742 $709 −$32 (-4%)
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) INOX Division 58¢ 50¢ $728 $629 −$99 (-14%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Legacy 53¢ 54¢ $496 $502 +$6 (+1%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) G2 64¢ 64¢ $500 $496 −$3 (-1%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Aurora Gaming 43¢ 42¢ $494 $488 −$6 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs OLDBOYS- 55¢ 55¢ $471 $473 +$2 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 23¢ 24¢ $365 $387 +$23 (+6%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) G2 34¢ 50¢ $233 $346 +$112 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $54 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $280 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Jun 12 $181 +$47 +26%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $14,556 +$8,530 +59%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 12 $531 +$877 +165%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,153 +$932 +81%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $756 +$535 +71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $751 +$558 +74%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $160 −$160 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 12 $21,161 +$1,555 +7%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $767 −$767 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $137 +$234 +170%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $160 +$127 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $32 +$18 +55%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,587 +$1,408 +89%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $253 +$303 +120%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,483 −$1,483 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $498 +$336 +67%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $168 +$277 +165%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $2,256 +$1,174 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $134 +$153 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $766 +$666 +87%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $282 +$149 +53%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 11 $440 −$440 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $270 +$212 +79%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $505 −$505 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $761 −$761 -100%
Map Handicap: OXUJI (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $178 −$178 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $500 +$270 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $761 +$902 +119%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $502 −$502 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,949 −$1,949 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $2,313 +$2,684 +116%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,046 +$1,636 +156%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,849 +$3,502 +189%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $818 +$539 +66%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7,823 +$5,965 +76%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 11 $209 +$291 +140%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) Jun 11 $503 −$39 -8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) Jun 11 $285 −$43 -15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $757 +$1,681 +222%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $270 +$266 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$103,231
other 0% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 81¢ $8 1m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 2m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $162 2m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 2m
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 60¢ $306 2m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 14¢ $271 2m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $345 2m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $18 2m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 81¢ $4 2m
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $578 2m
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 52¢ $3 2m
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 59¢ $59 7m
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 59¢ $214 11m
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 54¢ $15 13m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $31 13m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $22 14m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $4 16m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $171 16m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $167 16m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 82¢ $4 16m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 14¢ $291 16m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $294 16m
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 59¢ $177 16m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $52 17m
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 54¢ $3 17m
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $646 17m
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 38¢ $28 23m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $65 26m
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 55¢ $88 26m
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 38¢ $38 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 47% -28.5%
≤30d 226 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 47% -28.5%
≤90d 226 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 47% -28.5%
all 226 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 47% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover580.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 47% -28.5%
10% -24.3% 45% -35.4%
15% ← realistic here -31.6% 42% -41.6%
20% -38.3% 35% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,443.48 · official $43,443.79 (match) · 3500 history records