Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29b6…a2b6 crypto 314 markets active 6h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$384 (-9%) realized −$384 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate68%211W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$237
14 days−$237
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$151
sports 10% −$22
other 6% −$171
world 1% −$56
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -18.2% -26.0% 61% 35% -32.8%
≤30d 79 -20.5% -28.0% 59% 32% -31.6%
≤90d 309 -8.7% -17.4% 68% 34% -17.8%
all 309 -8.7% -17.4% 68% 34% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 34% -17.8%
10% -25.3% 20% -25.7%
15% -32.6% 12% -32.8%
20% -39.2% 10% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$384
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses211 / 98
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)309 / 314
History coverage72d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Haiti 83¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 87¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$5 +52%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $21 +$9 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 +$4 +216%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +83%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $25 −$10 -38%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$23 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $57 −$56 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$9 +31%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 +$14 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 +$8 +26%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY 68¢ $10 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 48¢ $10 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on BUY 51¢ $15 12h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY 65¢ $10 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 66¢ $10 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY 73¢ $10 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY 68¢ $11 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $10 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 36h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $10 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $20 38h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $2 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $2 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 80¢ $2 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $2 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $3 2d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 82¢ $3 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.96 · official $41.96 · 634 history records