Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
29 0x29b7…239f sports 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$283 (+41%) realized +$284 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$225
14 days+$225
30 days+$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$242
other 22% $0
world 22% +$35
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 41% +58.0%
≤30d 17 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 41% +58.0%
≤90d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 43% +45.8%
all 21 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 43% +45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 43% +45.8%
10% -18.4% 38% +31.8%
15% -26.3% 38% +19.1%
20% -33.5% 38% +7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +61% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$10 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$284
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions26
Markets (closed)21 / 47
History coverage40d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 71¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 49¢ 48¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Senegal 80¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 47¢ 41¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 39¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 35¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Under $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Senegal leading at halftime? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
France leading at halftime? No 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Over 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Senegal $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$65 +65%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $11 +$9 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $12 +$10 +79%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$62 +120%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 +$167 +299%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 12 $51 +$9 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 11 $10 −$7 -74%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 11 $40 −$23 -59%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 10 $51 +$74 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 5m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 5m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $3 7m
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 11m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $1 17m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 20m
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 21m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $1 24m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 24m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $3 26m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $3 27m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 27m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 29m
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $1 30m
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $1 31m
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal $1 32m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 32m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $1 33m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $1 33m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $1 33m
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 34m
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 36m
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 37m
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 39m
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 39m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 41m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes $1 42m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $3 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.36 · official $204.49 (match) · 143 history records