Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29ba…528b world 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%59W / 99L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$13
other 25% +$2
politics 16% $0
sports 12% +$11
crypto 4% −$2
economics 4% $0
weather 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 22% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 90 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 2% -9.3%
all 158 -0.7% -10.2% 37% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.2%
10% -18.7% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.6% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses59 / 99
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage487d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $147 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $58 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $152 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $44 +$6 +14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $165 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $96 +$4 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $137 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $47 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $38 +$11 +30%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $58 −$7 -12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $59 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $53 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $49 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $46 +$3 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 −$2 -38%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $22 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $38 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $39 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $39 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 06 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $151 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $45 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $58 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $29 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $28 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $57 25h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $7 34h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 34h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $52 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $41 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $11 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $52 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $28 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $52 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $52 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $52 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $57 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $52 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $23 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $29 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $52 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $52 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $52 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.97 · official $57.52 (match) · 587 history records