Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

29 0x29bb…3aa6 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$51 (-2%) realized +$331 · open −$382

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip

Net edge-60%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$437per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$2,399now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-60.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-34.2%	-40.5%	50%	50%	-42.2%
≤30d	2	-34.2%	-40.5%	50%	50%	-42.2%
≤90d	2	-34.2%	-40.5%	50%	50%	-42.2%
all	3	-56.1%	-60.3%	33%	33%	-88.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-60.3%	33%	-88.6%
10%	-64.1%	33%	-89.7%
15%	-67.6%	0%	-90.7%
20%	-70.8%	0%	-91.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -36% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -56% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$24 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage

Net worth$2,399

Realized+$331

Unrealized−$382

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)3 / 7

History coverage114d

Avg bet$437

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$1,000	$993	−$7 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$800	$793	−$7 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	47¢	28¢	$875	$512	−$363 (-41%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$100	$94	−$6 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Jun 28	$5	+$2	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 28	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Mar 06	$42	−$42	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$1,008	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$810	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	47¢	$889	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	48¢	$176	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	53¢	$201	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$5	2h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY No	47¢	$42	114d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,399.37 · official $2,399.37 (match) · 10 history records