Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29bc…e830 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate13%6W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$16
other 13% −$1
sports 2% −$16
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.2% -32.3% 0% 0% -31.4%
≤30d 14 -7.3% -16.1% 7% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 35 -5.4% -14.4% 11% 3% -11.0%
all 47 -4.5% -13.6% 13% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 2% -10.0%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses6 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage602d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $35 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 09 $3 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 09 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $12 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 17 $2 $0 -13%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $10 $0 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $210 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,429 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $1,342 −$7 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $1,938 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 12h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $7 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $37 27d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 27d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $34 32d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.88 · official $24.88 (match) · 307 history records