Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29bd…b52c weather 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$73 (+3%) realized +$57 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$116
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% +$131
other 9% −$67
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +8.5% -1.9% 65% 29% -2.2%
≤30d 36 -5.1% -14.1% 61% 36% -7.5%
≤90d 36 -5.1% -14.1% 61% 36% -7.5%
all 36 -5.1% -14.1% 61% 36% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 36% -7.5%
10% -22.3% 25% -16.4%
15% -29.8% 19% -24.4%
20% -36.7% 17% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)36 / 42
History coverage11d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $30 $36 +$5 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $12 +$27 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $33 −$23 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $98 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $167 −$17 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $17 +$16 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $144 +$18 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? Jun 20 $12 −$3 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $82 +$9 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $144 +$48 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $75 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $207 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $198 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $188 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$52 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$11 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $85 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$21 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $11 −$3 -30%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $33 −$32 -96%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 +$9 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$12 -28%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $164 +$28 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$81 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$9 +91%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $38 +$11 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 45m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 53m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 98¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.44 · official $134.44 (match) · 191 history records