Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29be…7675 other 519 markets active 1h ago coverage 354d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$206 (-3%) realized −$202 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%223W / 290L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$159
7 days−$159
14 days−$159
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$72
sports 20% −$291
world 1% +$6
crypto 0% −$9
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -52.2% -56.7% 22% 17% -87.0%
≤30d 27 -41.6% -47.2% 33% 30% -26.2%
≤90d 326 -67.5% -70.6% 15% 14% -40.1%
all 513 -8.4% -17.1% 43% 43% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 43% -12.4%
10% -25.0% 39% -20.8%
15% -32.3% 35% -28.4%
20% -38.9% 28% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

354d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$202
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses223 / 290
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)513 / 519
History coverage354d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 513 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 78¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Al-Nassr win Saudi Professional League? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Al-Hilal win Saudi Professional League? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -86%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $119 +$80 +67%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $258 +$62 +24%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $8 +$2 +31%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-07? May 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $79 +$21 +26%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $207 +$143 +69%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $2 +$2 +92%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-02? May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? May 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11? May 06 $138 +$38 +27%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $55 +$49 +89%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $91 +$18 +20%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $111 +$17 +16%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-26? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-04-23? Apr 26 $3 +$2 +76%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $12 +$6 +48%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-04-09? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-06? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-04-04? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-04? Apr 16 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-04-05? Apr 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-04-07? Apr 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $3 35h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 100¢ $200 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 43¢ $44 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 59¢ $60 17d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 59¢ $60 23d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 24d
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 25d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY No 11¢ $2 25d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY No 11¢ $1 25d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY No 11¢ $10 25d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY No 12¢ $12 25d
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 80¢ $161 25d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY No 12¢ $12 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.05 · official $65.05 (match) · 1351 history records