Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
29 0x29be…36ad crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$746 (+13%) realized +$590 · open +$156
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$39
14 days+$367
30 days+$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$227
crypto 12% +$13
politics 10% +$322
sports 4% +$75
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +12.5% +1.8% 67% 67% -6.6%
≤30d 5 +30.8% +18.3% 80% 80% +11.8%
≤90d 6 +31.9% +19.4% 83% 83% +13.1%
all 36 -3.8% -13.0% 39% 33% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 33% +1.2%
10% -21.3% 28% -8.5%
15% -28.9% 22% -17.4%
20% -35.9% 11% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$35 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$1,460
Realized+$590
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage220d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $542 +$42 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $474 $421 −$53 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $326 +$126 (+63%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $120 +$40 (+50%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $638 +$104 +16%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $452 −$111 -25%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $100 +$46 +46%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $457 +$328 +72%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $100 +$45 +44%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $200 +$75 +38%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $10 +$27 +272%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Mar 03 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 18 $290 −$290 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 18 $72 −$9 -12%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 18 $175 −$175 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on November 25? Nov 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $750 +$243 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4AM ET Nov 25 $197 −$50 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET Nov 24 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET Nov 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Nov 21 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Nov 21 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Nov 21 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Nov 21 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Nov 21 $30 −$9 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Nov 21 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Nov 21 $23 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Nov 21 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Nov 20 $29 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Nov 20 $65 −$48 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Nov 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 14 $12 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $1 $0 -0%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton Nov 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $501 +$373 +74%
Will the government shutdown end November 17? Nov 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Nov 13 $3 +$7 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $742 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $487 35h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $341 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $146 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $452 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $308 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $757 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $148 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $145 23d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 23d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 28d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 72¢ $200 53d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $300 58d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 58d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 81d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 82d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 82d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 82d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 101d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,459.83 · official $1,376.50 · 301 history records