Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29be…559c politics 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,011 (+1%) realized +$1,011 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%9W / 75L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$1,159per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$880now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$20
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$65
other 39% −$88
sports 4% +$1,149
culture 3% −$5
world 3% −$5
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -1.5% -10.9% 11% 7% -8.6%
all 84 -1.5% -10.9% 11% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 7% -8.6%
10% -19.4% 7% -17.4%
15% -27.2% 6% -25.3%
20% -34.3% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,580) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$4 · ×33.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.05 per $1 lost it wins $4.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$880
Realized+$1,011
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses9 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage86d
Avg bet$1,159
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $881 $880 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $2,896 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $279 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,803 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,459 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,412 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,594 −$3 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,620 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,675 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,671 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 04 $810 +$1 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $2,345 −$4 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,175 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $2,988 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,293 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,671 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $3,038 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 21 $361 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $33 +$13 +40%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,630 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,665 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,538 −$2 -0%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 May 07 $1,005 +$1,276 +127%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 29 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $942 −$1 -0%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $951 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,973 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $881 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $296 46h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $296 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $278 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $279 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $203 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $203 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $634 3d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $635 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,467 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,469 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,458 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,459 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,410 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,412 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,592 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,594 9d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,618 10d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,620 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,592 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,594 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,578 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,580 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,672 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,675 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,308 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,309 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,307 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,309 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,668 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $880.43 · official $880.43 (match) · 238 history records