Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:02:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29bf…d9f1 crypto 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-2%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%41W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$191
14 days+$128
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$130
crypto 41% −$29
sports 6% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +42.4% +28.9% 100% 100% +21.5%
≤30d 81 -21.8% -29.3% 51% 36% -3.5%
≤90d 81 -21.8% -29.3% 51% 36% -3.5%
all 81 -21.8% -29.3% 51% 36% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 36% -3.5%
10% -36.1% 23% -12.8%
15% -42.2% 21% -21.2%
20% -47.9% 17% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses41 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage16d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $354 +$42 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 +$149 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $2 +$2 +109%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $2 +$1 +71%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $2 +$2 +82%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 +$2 +92%
Spread: Greece (-1.5) Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $2 +$2 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 +$2 +88%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $2 +$2 +106%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $2 +$3 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 04 $5 −$5 -90%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 04 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 04 $15 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +15%
HUS Agadir vs. FathUnionSport: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +54%
Centurion 2: Alec Beckley vs Tuncay Duran Jun 04 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 03 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $396 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $354 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $354 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $204 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 8d
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 10d
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 10d
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 10d
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 10d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 59¢ $2 11d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 47¢ $2 11d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 67¢ $2 11d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Magda Linette 99¢ $3 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane SELL Nuno Borges 100¢ $4 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane BUY Nuno Borges 54¢ $2 11d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Magda Linette 57¢ $2 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $2 12d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $4 12d
Spread: Greece (-1.5) BUY Greece 24¢ $2 13d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 13d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 13d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 88¢ $4 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 64¢ $4 14d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros SELL Athletics 6¢ $0 14d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 14d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros BUY Athletics 51¢ $1 14d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $2 14d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ $2 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records