Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29c1…b54e other 9 markets active 4d ago coverage 55d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$53 (-17%) realized −$70 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$10
world 16% +$17
crypto 14% −$41
politics 13% −$40
sports 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 -24.2% -31.4% 38% 38% -35.3%
all 8 -24.2% -31.4% 38% 38% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 38% -35.3%
10% -38.0% 25% -41.5%
15% -44.0% 25% -47.2%
20% -49.5% 12% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$27 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage55d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $33 +$47 +145%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 25 $43 −$41 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 25 $30 +$13 +42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $20 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.77 · official $66.77 (match) · 17 history records