Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x29c1…e8e8
other · 15 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$23 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$36
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage50d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 5 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 $0 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $21 −$3 -13%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $48 +$11 +22%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 08 $183 +$13 +7%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 22 $77 −$21 -27%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president May 12 $19 −$14 -76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 10 $25 −$4 -16%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 10 $8 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 75% −$14
other 12% −$3
world 8% −$6
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 17m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 17m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 18m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $15 19m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 19m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 20m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 20m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 32m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 16h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 16h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 36h
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 37h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 37h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 37h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 67¢ $58 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 53¢ $48 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $48 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $49 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 80¢ $49 10d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 72¢ $45 11d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 65¢ $45 14d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 56¢ $1 20d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 56¢ $1 21d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 21d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 51¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 17% -3.0%
≤30d 7 -5.7% -14.7% 29% 14% -9.9%
≤90d 10 -13.8% -22.0% 20% 10% -14.2%
all 10 -13.8% -22.0% 20% 10% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 10% -14.2%
10% -29.5% 10% -22.4%
15% -36.3% 0% -29.9%
20% -42.5% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.36 · official $36.36 (match) · 70 history records