trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 79¢ | 76¢ | $48 | $47 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $55 | −$2 | -3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 10 | $17 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Nov 25 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 25 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 25 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? | Nov 25 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 14 | $15 | +$4 | +25% |
| Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jul 04 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jul 03 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after | Jul 03 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jul 02 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Jul 01 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? | Jul 01 | $8 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 28 | $5 | $0 | +7% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Jun 04 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 01 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 31 | $5 | +$1 | +17% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | May 21 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | May 19 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? | May 17 | $2 | +$3 | +128% |
| Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? | May 16 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? | May 14 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Canada election called by Sunday? | Mar 24 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Mar 22 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | Mar 21 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Wofford vs. Tennessee | Mar 20 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 0% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 0% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 0% | 0% | -10.7% |
| all | 32 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 41% | 9% | -10.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.9% | 9% | -10.5% |
| 10% | -18.5% | 6% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -26.4% | 3% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -33.6% | 3% | -34.0% |