Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29cc…c3a2 crypto 40 markets active 2d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$87 (-34%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -14.3% -22.4% 19% 19% -37.5%
≤30d 39 -18.7% -26.4% 18% 18% -40.0%
≤90d 40 -20.7% -28.3% 18% 18% -42.5%
all 40 -20.7% -28.3% 18% 18% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 18% -42.5%
10% -35.1% 18% -48.0%
15% -41.4% 18% -53.0%
20% -47.1% 18% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$6 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage28d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$11 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$7 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$6 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$26 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$12 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$57 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records