Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x29cc…3c29 other 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,926 (+3%) realized +$31,723 · open −$3,797
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%116W / 126L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$4,057per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$3,249est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$935now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 143d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$145,493
sports 37% +$50,875
world 0% −$1,822
crypto 0% +$702
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +50.1% +35.8% 54% 54% +76.8%
≤30d 36 +78.0% +61.1% 53% 53% +93.5%
≤90d 134 +24.1% +12.3% 48% 46% +16.6%
all 242 +19.6% +8.2% 48% 46% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.2% 46% +10.6%
10% ← realistic here -2.1% 45% +0.0%
15% -11.6% 44% -9.7%
20% -20.2% 40% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$4,872) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,758 vs −$3,267 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$935
Realized+$31,723
Unrealized−$3,797
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses116 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$3,249
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage143d
Avg bet$4,057
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 48¢ 10¢ $4,732 $935 −$3,797 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $3,213 +$3,087 +96%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1,019 −$1,019 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $4,080 +$6,120 +150%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3,641 +$3,134 +86%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11,926 +$14,332 +120%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3,350 −$3,350 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $669 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,560 $0 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5,350 +$5,350 +100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $378 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,772 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3,299 +$3,468 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,163 +$6,139 +194%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $13,049 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,177 +$13,538 +1150%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,085 +$702 +65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3,460 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $454 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $11,494 $0 +0%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $11,212 +$5,037 +45%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $195 +$305 +156%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $1,049 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $622 +$118 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,521 +$1,110 +44%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $573 $0 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5,153 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,389 +$684 +49%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $64 +$114 +180%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,980 +$4,242 +85%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 04 $622 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $3,920 +$4,080 +104%
Anastasia Potapova vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $6,793 $0 +0%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) May 30 $114 $0 +0%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $6,193 +$4,007 +65%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14,036 +$27,246 +194%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,158 $0 +0%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $20,719 +$18,373 +89%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $910 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $13,354 +$16,348 +122%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $22,087 +$11,404 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $13,332 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $14 +$10 +70%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $16,727 +$26,413 +158%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $19,223 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $12,317 −$12,317 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $12,136 +$13,686 +113%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $16,250 +$10,390 +64%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $6,343 −$6,343 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $2,965 −$2,964 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $1,138 +$2,022 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 58¢ $81 40m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $415 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $1 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $53 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $9 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $81 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $78 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $404 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $225 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $81 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $160 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $80 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $64 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $1 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $13 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $13 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $81 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $3 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $2 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $4 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $81 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $2 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $1 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $5 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $4 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $46 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $79 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $48 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $79 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $79 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $934.70 · official $3,394.44 · 1594 history records