Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:51:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
29 0x29ce…b53b crypto 276 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$761 (-0%) realized −$849 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%260W / 12L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$702per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$610
7 days+$135
14 days−$248
30 days−$1,219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$2,334
sports 24% +$1,371
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 184 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 272 -0.0% -9.6% 96% 0% -9.4%
all 272 -0.0% -9.6% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$982) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$340 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$2,111
Realized−$849
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses260 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions4
Markets (closed)272 / 276
History coverage51d
Avg bet$702
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 95¢ 100¢ $672 $707 +$35 (+5%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 96¢ 100¢ $679 $707 +$28 (+4%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 95¢ 98¢ $672 $697 +$25 (+4%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Minnesota Lynx 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $686 +$13 +2%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 18 $388 +$15 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 18 $1,481 +$24 +2%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 18 $687 +$20 +3%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 18 $687 +$20 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 18 $1,288 +$13 +1%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 18 $481 +$24 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 18 $990 +$11 +1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $680 +$27 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 18 $1,475 +$28 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 18 $1,485 +$16 +1%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 18 $981 +$23 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 18 $982 +$21 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $685 +$21 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 18 $1,475 +$29 +2%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 18 $486 +$18 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 18 $1,486 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $1,479 +$22 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 18 $1,486 +$13 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $673 +$34 +5%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $673 +$34 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $680 +$27 +4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $385 +$20 +5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $385 +$20 +5%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $686 +$14 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $392 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $595 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,486 +$12 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $673 +$28 +4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $673 +$34 +5%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $690 +$9 +1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $673 +$34 +5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $686 +$14 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $673 +$34 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,487 −$1,009 -68%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $490 +$10 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $481 +$25 +5%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $490 +$15 +3%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $481 +$20 +4%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $486 +$20 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $490 +$15 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $486 +$20 +4%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $481 +$25 +5%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $486 +$20 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $481 +$25 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,486 +$12 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $490 +$15 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $490 +$10 +2%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $481 +$25 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $481 +$25 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $706 5m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 95¢ $673 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 100¢ $699 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 96¢ $680 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 96¢ $680 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 98¢ $686 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 95¢ $673 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $706 7h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 97¢ $687 7h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 100¢ $706 8h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 95¢ $673 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 95¢ $673 9h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 97¢ $687 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1,002 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1,500 16h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 96¢ $680 24h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $706 26h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 95¢ $385 26h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $404 26h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 95¢ $385 26h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $400 26h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 96¢ $388 27h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 96¢ $680 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1,479 27h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 98¢ $686 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $392 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $982 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1,001 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $602 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $957 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,111.00 · official $2,110.71 (match) · 939 history records