Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
29 0x29cf…5d4c crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+18%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$56
other 39% +$135
sports 16% −$2
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.9% +4.8% 62% 50% +28.3%
≤30d 8 +15.9% +4.8% 62% 50% +28.3%
≤90d 8 +15.9% +4.8% 62% 50% +28.3%
all 11 -15.7% -23.8% 45% 36% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 36% +12.1%
10% -31.0% 18% +1.4%
15% -37.7% 9% -8.4%
20% -43.8% 9% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$13 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage117d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 20 $65 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $162 +$135 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 23 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 23 $10 −$10 -99%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records