Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29d1…9ad4 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$393 (-35%) realized −$389 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$236
crypto 20% −$99
other 18% −$59
sports 5% −$3
world 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-61.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 16 -52.2% -56.8% 25% 25% -13.0%
≤90d 18 -57.5% -61.6% 22% 22% -48.8%
all 18 -57.5% -61.6% 22% 22% -48.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.6% 22% -48.8%
10% -65.3% 17% -53.7%
15% -68.6% 17% -58.2%
20% -71.7% 11% -62.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$41 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$389
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage30d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $42 −$42 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $53 +$21 +40%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $19 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $19 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 05 $20 −$7 -36%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 05 $245 +$143 +58%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 25 $333 −$329 -99%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $94 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic BUY 14¢ $51 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $49 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $42 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $75 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $53 18d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $21 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $16 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $14 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 18d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 22d
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 27d
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? BUY Yes 62¢ $244 28d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 67¢ $248 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.65 · official $188.65 · 39 history records