Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29d2…d2da sports 14 markets active 6d ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$91 (-14%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days+$74
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$125
other 16% +$31
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 75% 50% -16.4%
≤30d 9 +3.2% -6.6% 78% 56% +3.0%
≤90d 14 -11.0% -19.5% 71% 36% -22.1%
all 14 -11.0% -19.5% 71% 36% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 36% -22.1%
10% -27.2% 36% -29.6%
15% -34.2% 21% -36.4%
20% -40.7% 14% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$67 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage81d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $50 +$13 +26%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 11 $101 +$65 +64%
Ilkley: Alina Korneeva vs Celine Naef Jun 10 $78 +$46 +60%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $101 +$36 +36%
Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $41,500 (HIGH) by April 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +8%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Jun 07 $40 +$12 +29%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? Apr 13 $3 $0 +8%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 09 $160 −$157 -99%
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Apr 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $3 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records