Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x29d3…b2ed sports 434 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$91,875 (+26%) realized +$92,840 · open −$965
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%221W / 136L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$811per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$303est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$62,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$30,140
politics 27% +$2,058
other 12% −$6,093
sports 11% +$4,106
finance 3% +$4,570
culture 1% +$891
tech 1% −$463
crypto 0% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -18.5% -26.3% 44% 44% +0.6%
≤30d 233 +8.9% -1.5% 53% 46% -6.7%
≤90d 357 +24.9% +13.0% 62% 54% -1.7%
all 357 +24.9% +13.0% 62% 54% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.0% 54% -1.7%
10% +2.2% 46% -11.1%
15% ← realistic here -7.7% 38% -19.7%
20% -16.7% 31% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$400 vs −$386 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$62,289
Realized+$92,840
Unrealized−$965
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses221 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions77
Markets (closed)357 / 434
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$811
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 80¢ 99¢ $8,132 $10,113 +$1,981 (+24%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $4,200 $4,525 +$325 (+8%)
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $2,227 $2,966 +$738 (+33%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 54¢ 74¢ $2,154 $2,917 +$763 (+35%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $2,850 $2,722 −$127 (-4%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 67¢ 90¢ $2,009 $2,685 +$676 (+34%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 28¢ $6,700 $2,564 −$4,136 (-62%)
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-03 House seat? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $1,820 $1,870 +$50 (+3%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,697 $1,730 +$32 (+2%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 76¢ $1,260 $1,530 +$270 (+21%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $1,367 $1,402 +$36 (+3%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $1,030 $1,275 +$245 (+24%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner LGD Gaming 84¢ 100¢ $1,011 $1,199 +$189 (+19%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 25¢ $1,290 $1,141 −$149 (-12%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 46¢ 95¢ $542 $1,120 +$578 (+107%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $993 $1,107 +$114 (+11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 45¢ 99¢ $446 $994 +$548 (+123%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $1,200 $975 −$225 (-19%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 53¢ 48¢ $1,060 $970 −$90 (-8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 42¢ 96¢ $420 $955 +$535 (+127%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $735 $892 +$158 (+21%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 22¢ $1,389 $870 −$519 (-37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $960 $819 −$141 (-15%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $730 $779 +$49 (+7%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $1,167 $620 −$547 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $73 −$73 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $598 +$402 +67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $14,458 +$4,344 +30%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 18 $53 −$2 -3%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $308 +$192 +62%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +56%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Désiré Doué be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $65 +$38 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $270 −$270 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 16 $508 −$508 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $20 +$29 +145%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $55 +$53 +96%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $69 +$31 +45%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $49 +$51 +104%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $514 −$37 -7%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $56 +$44 +78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $129 +$71 +55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $143 −$91 -63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$8 +104%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $161 +$39 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $351 +$99 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $358 +$92 +26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $833 +$67 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$63 +62%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $196 −$136 -69%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $3,611 +$1,382 +38%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $2,392 −$990 -41%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $288 +$212 +74%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 11 $56 −$54 -96%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $122 −$122 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 11 $168 −$108 -64%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $108 −$108 -100%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 11 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Martin O'Donnell be the Republican nominee for NV-03? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $466 −$466 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 59¢ $59 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 85¢ $155 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 85¢ $159 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 85¢ $159 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 85¢ $159 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 82¢ $210 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 84¢ $169 1h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 94¢ $471 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $703 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $362 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $41 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $735 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $2 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $3 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $1 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $8 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $4 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $1 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $1 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $3 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $5 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $9 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $3 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $3 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $3 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $18 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $3 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $5 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $6 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $6 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62,288.89 · official $62,331.44 (match) · 3500 history records