Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:15:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29d3…5ce3 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-4%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$6
other 22% −$34
weather 10% +$1
politics 4% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 0% -10.9%
all 34 -4.2% -13.4% 59% 0% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -13.0%
10% -21.7% 0% -21.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -28.9%
20% -36.2% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage476d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $63 −$10 -16%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $44 +$1 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $9 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $64 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $13 −$1 -5%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Jun 03 $29 −$2 -7%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 07 $2 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $34 $0 -0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $34 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 31 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $28 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 30 $33 $0 +1%
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? Mar 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 23 $2 $0 -28%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 23 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 20? Mar 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will "Bridgerton" win Best Cast in a Drama Series at the 2025 SAG Awar Mar 05 $34 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $38 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $38 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $14 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $15 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $24 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 39h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $13 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $31 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $50 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $6 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $32 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $21 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records