Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
29 0x29d3…7241 other 1108 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1101W / 4L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$14
sports 45% −$2
politics 2% +$5
weather 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% −$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.3%
≤30d 258 -0.0% -9.6% 100% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 913 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 1105 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1101 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1105 / 1108
History coverage118d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lazarenko vs. Bonaccorso: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Mili Poljicak vs. Bozo Barun: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Set Handicap: Yilmaz (-1.5) vs Herrmann (+1.5) Herrmann 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs So:sweet (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Dplus (-2.5) vs So:sweet (+2.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Padula vs Jamshidi Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Photiades vs. Inchauspe: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Yannik Kelm vs. Piet Steveker: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Guidi vs. Pradenne: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Guidi vs. Pradenne: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Valiente vs. Villoslada: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Paul vs. Seibold: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Hu vs. Choe: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Masiianskaia vs. Lee: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Thea Marcu vs. Rose Marie Nijkamp: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Guna vs. Cazacu: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Stusek vs. Kaegi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Ali Olwan: 2+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Alexander Prass: 3+ shots on target Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Rina Saigo vs. Tiana Tian Deng: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Odeh Fakhoury: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Sato vs. Hu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shots on target Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Mike Trout: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Logan Gilbert: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Kerry Carpenter: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Koizumi vs. Imamura: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Filipe Luis be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+3 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Shota Imanaga: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Mahdi Torabi: 5+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Agustín Canobbio: 1+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ziyad Al Johani: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Saleh Al Shehri: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Eric García: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrei Svechnikov lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ellyes Skhiri: 3+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Simon Adingra: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 3 - 2 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Daizen Maeda: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Takefusa Kubo: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Jeremy Antonisse: 2+ assists Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Stabaek IF 2 - 3 Egersunds IK? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lazarenko vs. Bonaccorso: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 13m
Set Handicap: Yilmaz (-1.5) vs Herrmann (+1.5) BUY Herrmann 100¢ $5 24m
Mili Poljicak vs. Bozo Barun: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $5 34m
Set 2 Winner: Padula vs Jamshidi BUY Padula 100¢ $5 2h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Dplus (-2.5) vs So:sweet (+2.5) BUY Dplus 100¢ $5 2h
Map Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs So:sweet (+1.5) BUY Dplus 100¢ $5 3h
Yannik Kelm vs. Piet Steveker: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $5 3h
Photiades vs. Inchauspe: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 3h
Guidi vs. Pradenne: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 4h
Guidi vs. Pradenne: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 4h
Paul vs. Seibold: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Valiente vs. Villoslada: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 4h
Masiianskaia vs. Lee: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 5h
Thea Marcu vs. Rose Marie Nijkamp: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $5 6h
Guna vs. Cazacu: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Hu vs. Choe: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Ali Olwan: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 6h
Stusek vs. Kaegi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 7h
Alexander Prass: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Odeh Fakhoury: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Rina Saigo vs. Tiana Tian Deng: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $5 9h
Sato vs. Hu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 10h
Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Mike Trout: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 11h
Logan Gilbert: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 11h
Kerry Carpenter: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 12h
Koizumi vs. Imamura: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 13h
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 13h
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.97 · official $14.97 (match) · 2524 history records