Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
29 0x29d8…907b other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$108 (+24%) realized +$101 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$112
14 days+$110
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$24
sports 32% +$123
world 7% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +45.5% +31.7% 60% 60% +15.7%
≤30d 26 +39.9% +26.6% 58% 58% +15.1%
≤90d 26 +39.9% +26.6% 58% 58% +15.1%
all 26 +39.9% +26.6% 58% 58% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.6% 58% +15.1%
10% +14.5% 58% +4.1%
15% +3.4% 54% -6.0%
20% -6.7% 46% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +81% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage7d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 80¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+68%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 18¢ $19 $9 −$10 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$28 +180%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +39%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$26 +126%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$24 +596%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +246%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 7h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 9h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $21 31h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 32h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 36h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $38 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $46 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $32 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.91 · official $50.91 (match) · 44 history records