Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
29 0x29d8…e1b3 sports 390 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$505 (+6%) realized +$451 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%181W / 166L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day80.8pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$892now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$67
14 days+$388
30 days+$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$452
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 261 -0.6% -10.1% 48% 45% -10.6%
≤30d 347 +6.8% -3.3% 52% 46% -4.7%
≤90d 347 +6.8% -3.3% 52% 46% -4.7%
all 347 +6.8% -3.3% 52% 46% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 46% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 37% -13.8%
15% -21.0% 32% -22.1%
20% -28.8% 25% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$892
Realized+$451
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses181 / 166
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions43
Markets (closed)347 / 390
History coverage17d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day80.8
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 16¢ 55¢ $30 $105 +$75 (+250%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Colorado Rockies 54¢ 94¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+73%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 67¢ 98¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+46%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 54¢ 77¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+42%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 42¢ 57¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+37%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Under 60¢ 79¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+31%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Detroit Tigers 35¢ 90¢ $15 $39 +$24 (+159%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ 80¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 44¢ 46¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Over 73¢ 70¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 50¢ 48¢ $29 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Athletics 78¢ 67¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-14%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Under 65¢ 60¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-8%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Under 35¢ 52¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+47%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Under 53¢ 72¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+37%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 34¢ 46¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+35%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 66¢ 88¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+33%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Over 22¢ 42¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+93%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ 45¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Under 70¢ 84¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Under 75¢ 88¢ $15 $18 +$2 (+17%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 26¢ 30¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Under 73¢ 57¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Over 75¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 16 $13 +$8 +64%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $30 +$16 +53%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $30 +$22 +74%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $30 +$39 +127%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 +$59 +195%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $30 +$28 +92%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 16 $30 +$95 +314%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $29 +$8 +26%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5) Jun 16 $15 +$3 +20%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$18 +59%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 +$9 +170%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $30 +$25 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $30 −$13 -43%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $15 +$4 +30%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $15 +$4 +30%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $30 −$2 -7%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $30 −$17 -57%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$7 -24%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 +$4 +16%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Jun 15 $30 +$17 +56%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 30¢ $14 15m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 30¢ $2 15m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 4¢ $2 16m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 4¢ $1 16m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 4¢ $0 16m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 4¢ $2 16m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 18¢ $0 27m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 18¢ $5 27m
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 41¢ $1 1h
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 41¢ $1 1h
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 41¢ $2 1h
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 41¢ $1 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 1h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 53¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) BUY Athletics 88¢ $4 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 76¢ $8 1h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Athletics 26¢ $4 1h
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 44¢ $5 1h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 53¢ $1 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 79¢ $3 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 63¢ $8 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 79¢ $2 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 79¢ $15 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 71¢ $4 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $891.74 · official $891.07 (match) · 1748 history records