Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
29 0x29db…19c3 sports 166 markets active 4d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$308 (+2%) realized +$308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%67W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$241est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$662
14 days+$195
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$99
other 10% −$148
crypto 1% −$45
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -31.9% -38.4% 30% 28% -20.2%
≤30d 151 -23.7% -30.9% 38% 36% -11.5%
≤90d 166 -22.1% -29.5% 40% 37% -11.2%
all 166 -22.1% -29.5% 40% 37% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 37% -11.2%
10% -36.2% 34% -19.7%
15% -42.4% 32% -27.4%
20% -48.0% 25% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$60 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses67 / 99
Est. fees paid−$241
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage30d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $102 −$17 -17%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $452 −$110 -24%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $51 +$35 +68%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$58 -57%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $51 −$25 -48%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $77 −$74 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $127 −$127 -100%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 14 $76 +$117 +153%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $228 −$223 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $348 +$69 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $56 −$43 -76%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $152 +$125 +82%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $187 +$179 +95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 −$35 -57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 13 $76 +$89 +117%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $455 −$273 -60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $302 +$58 +19%
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 12 $46 −$29 -63%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +6%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $253 −$40 -16%
Will Falcons qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $346 +$465 +135%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $303 −$303 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 −$43 -21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $107 +$122 +115%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $253 +$134 +53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $254 +$256 +101%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $491 +$357 +73%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $92 −$19 -21%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $91 −$91 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $66 +$46 +71%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $355 −$23 -6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Will BIG qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $279 +$90 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $85 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $53 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $86 3d
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $46 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $44 3d
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $56 3d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $77 3d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $193 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 29¢ $26 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $25 4d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $76 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $177 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 52¢ $76 4d
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY 9z 25¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 55¢ $101 4d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $366 4d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FURIA 49¢ $187 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 23¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 14¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 15¢ $15 4d
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 5d
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 5d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) BUY Legacy 54¢ $152 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 13¢ $14 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 8¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 23¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 455 history records