Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29dc…24e6 politics 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,350 (+1%) realized +$1,349 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate21%32W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$1,274per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$8
14 days−$32
30 days−$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$229
politics 37% −$91
sports 10% +$1,645
culture 2% −$5
world 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -11.9% -20.3% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 91 -17.0% -24.9% 4% 1% -9.5%
all 153 -5.2% -14.2% 21% 7% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 7% -8.9%
10% -22.5% 7% -17.6%
15% -29.9% 5% -25.6%
20% -36.8% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,472) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$10 · ×7.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$329
Realized+$1,349
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses32 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,274
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $328 $329 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,217 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $2,120 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $316 +$1 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,959 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $10,663 −$11 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4,459 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,404 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 07 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $6,847 −$7 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $737 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $989 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $479 +$2 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $511 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,728 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,015 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,515 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,891 −$3 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,167 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 21 $1,169 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $7,932 −$9 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,736 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $2,911 −$5 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $2,665 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $1,281 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $365 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $366 3h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $330 6h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $330 8h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $255 28h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $256 30h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $496 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $497 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $469 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $470 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $469 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $470 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $518 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $519 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $560 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $561 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $344 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $344 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $468 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $468 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $581 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $581 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $562 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $563 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $328 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $853 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $854 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $695 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $697 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $712 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.47 · official $329.47 (match) · 504 history records