Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
29 0x29df…f3d2 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$25 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$9
other 47% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.3% -6.6% 70% 70% -8.4%
≤30d 10 +3.3% -6.6% 70% 70% -8.4%
≤90d 10 +3.3% -6.6% 70% 70% -8.4%
all 10 +3.3% -6.6% 70% 70% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 70% -8.4%
10% -15.5% 40% -17.1%
15% -23.7% 30% -25.1%
20% -31.2% 10% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$180 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Over 84¢ 84¢ $436 $434 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $376 +$65 +17%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $289 +$87 +30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $200 +$90 +45%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $158 −$158 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $353 −$194 -55%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $318 +$34 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $216 +$102 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $402 −$186 -46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $335 +$67 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $205 +$131 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $441 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $441 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $376 15h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $289 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $200 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $158 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $158 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $353 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $353 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $318 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $216 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $216 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $402 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $402 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $335 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $205 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.78 · official $436.38 (match) · 21 history records