Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29e0…e76b other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$114 (-8%) realized −$109 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$178
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$116
other 39% −$6
world 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% +5.4%
≤90d 8 -14.5% -22.6% 62% 12% -23.0%
all 17 -18.3% -26.1% 71% 6% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 6% -20.9%
10% -33.1% 6% -28.5%
15% -39.6% 6% -35.4%
20% -45.5% 6% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$59 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized−$109
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage177d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $428 $423 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $215 +$178 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $124 −$122 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? May 23 $20 $0 +1%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 28 $167 −$165 -99%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 28 $201 −$6 -3%
Will March 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Apr 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? Apr 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on January 10? Feb 04 $16 $0 +0%
Clavicular in jail by January 31? Feb 04 $17 $0 +1%
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31? Feb 04 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Apple reach $360 in January? Feb 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Jan 07 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $435 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $215 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $124 24d
Wild vs. Stars BUY Stars 55¢ $167 55d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Heat 33¢ $67 69d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 68¢ $134 69d
Will March 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? BUY No 100¢ $9 96d
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 103d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 99¢ $20 111d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 100¢ $18 116d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? BUY No 96¢ $20 135d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $41 142d
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 150d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 3¢ $2 150d
Clavicular in jail by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $17 159d
Will Apple reach $360 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 159d
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31? BUY No 97¢ $19 166d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on January 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 166d
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.82 · official $422.82 (match) · 32 history records