Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29e1…5ccc crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$307 (-7%) realized −$307 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day86.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$658
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.2% -13.3% 46% 43% -23.2%
≤30d 46 -4.2% -13.3% 46% 43% -23.2%
≤90d 46 -4.2% -13.3% 46% 43% -23.2%
all 46 -4.2% -13.3% 46% 43% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 43% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 41% -30.6%
15% -29.2% 41% -37.3%
20% -36.1% 35% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$83 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$307
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage1d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day86.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $184 −$175 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $186 −$69 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $208 +$253 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $205 +$102 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $155 +$139 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $155 +$125 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$67 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$52 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$104 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $409 −$400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $301 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$131 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $154 +$106 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $115 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records