Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29e1…29f8 other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$162 (-1%) realized −$359 · open +$197
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate53%33W / 29L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$116
politics 31% +$361
weather 3% −$577
world 1% −$23
crypto 1% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 18 -29.0% -35.8% 44% 22% -17.6%
all 62 -11.2% -19.7% 53% 26% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 26% -11.2%
10% -27.3% 18% -19.7%
15% -34.4% 6% -27.5%
20% -40.8% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$53 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$1,772
Realized−$359
Unrealized+$197
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses33 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)62 / 78
History coverage169d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $441 $835 +$394 (+89%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $219 $206 −$13 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $149 $126 −$24 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $171 $119 −$52 (-30%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $82 $106 +$24 (+29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $122 $87 −$34 (-28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $79 $61 −$18 (-23%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $44 +$14 (+45%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $55 $36 −$19 (-34%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $28 −$7 (-20%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $27 −$9 (-25%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $65 $26 −$39 (-61%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $33 $22 −$11 (-33%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $9 −$5 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Israel" or "Israeli" during NYC rally? May 03 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Healthcare" or "Health care" 6+ times duri Apr 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" during NYC ral Apr 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Climate" during NYC rally? Apr 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Republican" during NYC rally? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Affordability" during NYC rally? Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC rally? Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Iran" during NYC rally? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 12 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $21 +$1 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 09 $5 $0 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $36 +$11 +30%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $14 −$6 -44%
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $45 −$2 -5%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $42 +$2 +5%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $60 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in March 2026? Mar 24 $141 +$137 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026? Mar 21 $44 +$29 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in March 2026? Mar 21 $67 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in March 2026? Mar 21 $46 −$21 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in March 2026? Mar 21 $208 −$186 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? Mar 02 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in March 2026? Mar 02 $16 −$7 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 20 $167 −$89 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 20 $557 −$148 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Feb 20 $794 −$100 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 19 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 19 $261 +$60 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 19 $44 +$18 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 18 $372 +$36 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 18 $960 +$12 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 18 $152 +$28 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 202 Feb 18 $265 −$112 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 Feb 17 $495 +$48 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 17 $1,000 +$19 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 17 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 17 $500 −$5 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $1,353 +$179 +13%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M Feb 15 $962 +$18 +2%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $2,114 +$12 +1%
Will Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Feb 13 $251 −$14 -5%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 13 $219 +$5 +2%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Feb 12 $873 +$207 +24%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Feb 11 $599 +$25 +4%
Will Tarique Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after the Feb 11 $112 +$27 +24%
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand? Feb 08 $642 +$226 +35%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $32 −$8 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $57 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $57 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $54 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $27 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $40 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $71 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $69 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 10d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 11d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 11d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,771.97 · official $1,771.97 (match) · 573 history records