Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29e2…727e crypto 127 markets active 6d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$119 (-53%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%28W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$104
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -43.8% -49.2% 17% 14% -49.3%
≤30d 122 -33.5% -39.8% 19% 16% -63.9%
≤90d 127 -31.9% -38.3% 22% 17% -62.5%
all 127 -31.9% -38.3% 22% 17% -62.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 17% -62.5%
10% -44.2% 13% -66.1%
15% -49.6% 11% -69.4%
20% -54.6% 9% -72.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses28 / 99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage28d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $93 −$87 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 29 $1 $0 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 464 history records