Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29e4…fda6 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate45%37W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$11
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$13
other 17% −$4
sports 16% −$6
politics 15% −$1
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 24 +7.8% -2.4% 54% 8% -8.5%
≤90d 72 +1.4% -8.3% 46% 4% -9.1%
all 83 -2.9% -12.1% 45% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 4% -9.4%
10% -20.5% 1% -18.1%
15% -28.2% 1% -26.0%
20% -35.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses37 / 46
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage543d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 65¢ 64¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 35¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $109 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $86 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $4 $0 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $198 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $114 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $105 +$4 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $46 +$3 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $46 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $54 −$3 -6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $41 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $41 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $44 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $38 +$4 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $49 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $131 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $48 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $3 $0 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $257 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $3 $0 -15%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $40 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $57 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $60 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $13 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $50 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $4 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $8 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $23 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $31 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $30 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $2 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $55 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $55 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $55 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.95 · official $59.98 (match) · 383 history records