Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x29e6…3365 sports 466 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28,568 (+2%) realized +$28,065 · open +$503
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate75%349W / 114L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,956per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$4,021est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$15,109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,021
7 days+$8,782
14 days+$12,661
30 days+$19,489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$17,324
other 26% +$5,098
crypto 2% +$447
world 0% +$376
tech 0% +$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +1.9% -7.8% 87% 26% -7.5%
≤30d 238 -0.5% -9.9% 76% 47% -6.7%
≤90d 463 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 53% -8.0%
all 463 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 53% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 53% -8.0%
10% -16.4% 40% -16.8%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 27% -24.8%
20% -31.9% 15% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$2,057) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$375 vs −$946 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$15,109
Realized+$28,065
Unrealized+$503
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses349 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$4,021
Open positions3
Markets (closed)463 / 466
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$2,956
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $9,612 $9,972 +$360 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $4,900 $4,988 +$88 (+2%)
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage DN SOOPers 63¢ 100¢ $94 $150 +$55 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $208 +$42 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $167 +$103 +62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $24,709 +$25 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $292 +$108 +37%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $4,749 +$71 +2%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $23,965 +$24 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $20,102 +$398 +2%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 26 $689 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $39,000 +$39 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $8,418 +$430 +5%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $16,417 +$627 +4%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $9,198 +$182 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $73 +$27 +37%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $4,525 +$92 +2%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 25 $175 +$9 +5%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $4,875 −$349 -7%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $35 +$15 +42%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $466 +$58 +12%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $26 +$24 +89%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2,875 +$90 +3%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $4,900 +$100 +2%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $897 +$103 +11%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $3,134 +$37 +1%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $8,768 +$264 +3%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $6,232 +$63 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $790 +$168 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $0 $0 -37%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,903 +$97 +5%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $21,054 +$401 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9,700 +$300 +3%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $28,381 +$1,619 +6%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $299 +$49 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20,370 +$1,266 +6%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $2,129 +$21 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $16,373 +$14 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $10,218 +$116 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $12,800 +$200 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $7,229 +$144 +2%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $18,751 +$305 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $9,892 +$2,107 +21%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $8,220 −$2,775 -34%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1,906 +$2 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $245 −$91 -37%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,008 +$53 +5%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5,776 +$376 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $2,000 +$150 +8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $4,043 +$467 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 63¢ $8 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 63¢ $18 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 63¢ $69 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY DK 83¢ $208 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $167 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,427 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $485 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,073 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $11,947 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $176 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $422 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,109.42 · official $15,109.42 (match) · 3500 history records