Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x29ea…027b other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$6
other 40% −$13
sports 11% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$710) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,105
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage97d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,105 $1,105 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 28 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 28 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 28 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $53 $0 -1%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $737 −$1 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? May 12 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $752 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $778 −$9 -1%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will Sungjae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $66 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 7m
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 16m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of BUY No 100¢ $1,085 25m
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 32m
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 42m
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 53m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,023 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $735 1h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $267 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,003 1h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 43d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 43d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 43d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 43d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 43d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 43d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 43d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 43d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $60 45d
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $32 45d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 45d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 45d
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $32 45d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $54 46d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $53 46d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 46d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,104.54 · official $1,104.54 (match) · 88 history records