Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29ed…66f7 crypto 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$445 (-7%) realized −$445 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%45W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$296
14 days−$296
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$279
other 14% −$148
crypto 12% +$5
world 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 49 -63.2% -66.7% 10% 10% -67.1%
all 152 -16.6% -24.5% 30% 30% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 30% -16.9%
10% -31.7% 29% -24.9%
15% -38.3% 28% -32.1%
20% -44.4% 27% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$33 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$445
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses45 / 107
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 154
History coverage590d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 152 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $1 +$5 +487%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 19? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $100 +$68 +68%
Real Betis Balompié vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Apr 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 31? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $10 +$17 +174%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Italy vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Mar 27 $100 +$107 +107%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 24? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $20 +$81 +403%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
AS Roma vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 22? Mar 22 $10 +$9 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: United St BUY 6¢ $10 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $100 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $50 7d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 40¢ $10 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27? BUY No 16¢ $1 54d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 35¢ $1 57d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 8¢ $1 58d
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $100 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? BUY No 5¢ $1 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19? BUY No 1¢ $1 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 19? BUY No 0¢ $1 62d
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 62d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Heat 37¢ $37 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 4¢ $10 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 11? BUY No 19¢ $10 71d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? BUY No 37¢ $100 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 7? BUY No 34¢ $11 74d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets BUY Trail Blazers 18¢ $10 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6? BUY No 58¢ $100 75d
Real Betis Balompié vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $100 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 31? BUY No 40¢ $10 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 29? BUY No 0¢ $1 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 29? BUY No 17¢ $10 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? BUY No 0¢ $1 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28? BUY No 35¢ $11 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 27? BUY No 36¢ $10 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 322 history records