Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29ee…c160 weather 40 markets active 2d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized +$208 · open −$239
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%34W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$6
sports 19% −$28
other 16% $0
crypto 16% −$239
weather 5% −$9
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.3% -20.7% 88% 0% -21.0%
≤30d 20 -4.9% -13.9% 90% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 36 -2.9% -12.2% 86% 0% -10.4%
all 39 -2.7% -12.0% 87% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -10.3%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.9%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$493
Realized+$208
Unrealized−$239
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses34 / 5
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage108d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 99¢ $246 $486 +$239 (+97%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $246 $7 −$239 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $550 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,440 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 15? May 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on May 16? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 15? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C or below on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 9? May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on May 9? May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 10? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 9? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 24? Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 24? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 24? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on April 24? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $85 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $237 −$28 -12%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $325 +$5 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 10 $102 $0 +0%
Will there be 22 or more US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? Mar 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Mar 10 $109 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $9 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 20d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 20d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $297 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 46¢ $253 25d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 33d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C or below on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 33d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 33d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 33d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $2 38d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $2 38d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $470 42d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $470 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.00 · official $493.00 (match) · 239 history records