Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29ef…ddda other 830 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$780 (+6%) realized +$1,343 · open −$563
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%197W / 490L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$3,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$271
14 days−$418
30 days−$639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$974
politics 19% −$271
tech 10% +$266
world 9% −$80
sports 8% −$124
finance 4% −$117
crypto 2% −$18
economics 1% −$95
culture 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -19.0% -26.7% 18% 9% -20.2%
≤30d 307 -17.8% -25.6% 24% 11% -22.9%
≤90d 687 -11.5% -20.0% 29% 14% -17.6%
all 687 -11.5% -20.0% 29% 14% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 14% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 10% -25.5%
15% -34.6% 7% -32.7%
20% -41.0% 5% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$3,097
Realized+$1,343
Unrealized−$563
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses197 / 490
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions159
Markets (closed)687 / 830
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 159 History 687 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $280 $312 +$32 (+11%)
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No 73¢ 79¢ $281 $306 +$25 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 60¢ $187 $188 +$1 (+1%)
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Yes 56¢ 18¢ $453 $151 −$302 (-67%)
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? No 70¢ 89¢ $114 $146 +$31 (+27%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 78¢ 78¢ $132 $133 +$2 (+1%)
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 82¢ $103 $112 +$9 (+8%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 81¢ 79¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 81¢ $64 $69 +$6 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 81¢ $56 $65 +$9 (+16%)
Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 3¢ 18¢ $11 $63 +$52 (+467%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Yes 54¢ 30¢ $107 $59 −$49 (-45%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 58¢ 68¢ $40 $47 +$6 (+16%)
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $72 $41 −$31 (-43%)
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+7%)
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes 6¢ 13¢ $18 $38 +$20 (+110%)
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes 18¢ 41¢ $16 $37 +$21 (+127%)
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 9¢ 36¢ $9 $36 +$27 (+295%)
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $33 $34 +$2 (+5%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 67¢ 74¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Grok 4.4 released by July 31? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $27 $33 +$6 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 27¢ $50 $32 −$17 (-35%)
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 75¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 18 $17 −$16 -94%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $123 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Emiliano Martinez join Bayern Munich? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Emiliano Martinez join Manchester United? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $397.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? Jun 17 $39 +$5 +14%
Will Rodri stay at Manchester City? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Joao Cancelo join Barcelona? Jun 17 $8 $0 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $17 $0 -1%
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.? Jun 16 $17 −$5 -29%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -49%
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -45%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 16 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Jack Schlossberg win the NY-12 Democratic Primary? Jun 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 16 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc Jun 16 $12 −$3 -25%
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $12 $0 -2%
Will Eberechi Eze score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026? Jun 16 $96 +$8 +8%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Elon post "ChatGPT" on X this week? Jun 15 $14 +$4 +30%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $25 −$8 -32%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $167.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $35 +$23 +64%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $92 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$7 -75%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $136 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $17 −$3 -19%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $17 −$9 -53%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $457.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -76%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -34%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$6 -53%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -77%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $4 −$1 -12%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of June 15 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $236 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $123 Week of June 15 SELL Yes 39¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Emiliano Martinez join Bayern Munich? SELL No 89¢ $18 2h
Will Joao Cancelo join Al-Nassr? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Joao Cancelo join Inter Milan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will Joao Cancelo join Juventus? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will Emiliano Martinez join Manchester United? SELL No 90¢ $12 6h
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 7h
Will Anthony Elanga score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 71¢ $7 8h
Will the US federal government take a stake in SpaceX? BUY No 65¢ $4 13h
Will Elon post "Tesla" on X this week? BUY No 9¢ $4 14h
Grok 4.4 released by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 14h
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY No 78¢ $10 15h
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Will Emiliano Martinez join Al-Hilal? SELL No 89¢ $12 18h
Will Emiliano Martinez join Manchester United? SELL No 90¢ $6 19h
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 90¢ $18 22h
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 28h
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by BUY Yes 2¢ $0 29h
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by BUY Yes 2¢ $0 29h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 29h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 29h
Will Emiliano Martinez join Bayern Munich? BUY No 89¢ $18 30h
Will Emiliano Martinez join Al-Hilal? BUY No 89¢ $18 30h
Will Emiliano Martinez join Manchester United? BUY No 90¢ $18 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,096.54 · official $3,096.40 (match) · 3500 history records