trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 11 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 9% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 9% | 0% | -10.1% |
| all | 24 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 33% | 12% | -10.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.2% | 12% | -10.6% |
| 10% | -17.0% | 12% | -19.1% |
| 15% | -25.0% | 8% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -32.4% | 8% | -34.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $42 | $42 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 15 | $114 | −$3 | -2% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $46 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $2 | −$1 | -55% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $102 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $21 | +$2 | +10% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $8 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Jun 10 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 23 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "Anora" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 20 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Georgescu banned from Romania election? | Mar 19 | $4 | +$2 | +66% |
| South Alabama vs. Southern Mississippi | Mar 02 | $13 | +$3 | +25% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on February 26? | Mar 02 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| South Dakota vs. North Dakota State | Feb 25 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Army vs. Lafayette | Feb 25 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| USC Upstate vs. High Point | Feb 25 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Michigan State vs. Maryland | Feb 25 | $28 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | Feb 25 | $10 | +$18 | +192% |