Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x29f8…cfb1 other 768 markets active 2h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,284 (+2%) realized +$9,397 · open +$887
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%455W / 262L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$705per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$468est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$9,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,337
7 days−$2,034
14 days+$2,450
30 days−$2,787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$5,277
sports 22% +$7,736
crypto 9% −$78
world 4% −$1,674
finance 0% +$14
politics 0% −$6
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -12.9% -21.2% 65% 48% -11.0%
≤30d 224 -8.9% -17.6% 58% 50% -10.7%
≤90d 527 -2.6% -11.9% 64% 56% -8.3%
all 717 -4.1% -13.2% 63% 53% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 53% -7.7%
10% -21.5% 39% -16.6%
15% -29.1% 28% -24.6%
20% -36.1% 21% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$267 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$9,573
Realized+$9,397
Unrealized+$887
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses455 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$468
Open positions27
Markets (closed)717 / 768
History coverage261d
Avg bet$705
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 717 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 63¢ 69¢ $7,151 $7,887 +$737 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $185 $320 +$136 (+73%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $145 $190 +$44 (+31%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 61¢ 93¢ $122 $185 +$63 (+52%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $154 $138 −$16 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $114 $102 −$12 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $104 $93 −$11 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $96 $92 −$4 (-4%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $72 $84 +$12 (+17%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 79¢ 76¢ $79 $76 −$3 (-4%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 72¢ $71 $72 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $71 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+15%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 35¢ $4 $35 +$31 (+679%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $18 $29 +$11 (+64%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-18%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 60¢ 20¢ $60 $20 −$40 (-66%)
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 93¢ $17 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $43 $18 −$25 (-58%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-42%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $16 −$10 (-38%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 75¢ 48¢ $15 $10 −$6 (-37%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 61¢ 48¢ $12 $10 −$3 (-22%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Yes 92¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5,133 +$2,104 +41%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19,934 −$10,604 -53%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14,525 +$1,225 +8%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 24 $102 +$280 +274%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12,425 +$1,644 +13%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11,308 +$1,356 +12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10,873 +$439 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10,451 +$422 +4%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $176 +$24 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10,229 +$223 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $76 −$76 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 22 $129 −$129 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 22 $95 −$95 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,141 +$113 +10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,095 +$105 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9,124 +$983 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8,712 +$316 +4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $893 +$107 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $536 +$264 +49%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $13 +$3 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $403 +$147 +36%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $834 +$166 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 +$10 +11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$52 +17%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: Jun 19 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $417 +$83 +20%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 19 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $153 +$47 +31%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9,222 +$778 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $257 +$143 +56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $432 +$68 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $912 +$88 +10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $153 +$47 +31%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AND Wi Jun 18 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$77 +76%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 +$49 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $7,230 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 70¢ $5,133 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 81¢ $4,206 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 22¢ $4,191 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $15,729 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 2¢ $10 29h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND W BUY 35¢ $102 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $14,525 43h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $12,425 46h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 26¢ $102 47h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $11,308 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $10,873 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $10,451 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 74¢ $202 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $10,229 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $33 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $1,089 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $1,095 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $9,124 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $8,712 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $204 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $893 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $1 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY 73¢ $403 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1 BUY 58¢ $506 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 25¢ $307 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $406 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,572.52 · official $9,573.67 (match) · 2593 history records