Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
29 0x29f9…9de3 sports 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+5%) realized +$40 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate69%20W / 9L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$31
politics 6% +$1
crypto 5% −$6
world 4% −$4
economics 1% $0
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +12.8% +2.1% 69% 59% -1.2%
≤30d 29 +12.8% +2.1% 69% 59% -1.2%
≤90d 29 +12.8% +2.1% 69% 59% -1.2%
all 29 +12.8% +2.1% 69% 59% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 59% -1.2%
10% -7.7% 59% -10.7%
15% -16.6% 45% -19.3%
20% -24.8% 31% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses20 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions11
Markets (closed)29 / 40
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 65¢ 47¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-29%)
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Enjoy 45¢ 46¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs GamerLegion 93¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner MOUZ 43¢ 44¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MOUZ 41¢ 40¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 71¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 92¢ 93¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs the bug (+1.5) GamerLegion 98¢ 86¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-13%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 46¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 25 $17 +$1 +9%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $15 +$6 +39%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 25 $23 −$22 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $15 +$3 +23%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $15 +$7 +46%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 25 $23 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $15 +$1 +7%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $15 +$4 +27%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $15 +$19 +124%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $15 +$11 +76%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $15 +$22 +146%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $15 +$10 +67%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $15 +$7 +44%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $15 +$5 +32%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $7 +$4 +48%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $15 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $15 +$3 +23%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $15 +$20 +134%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $15 +$8 +54%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $15 +$9 +59%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $7 29m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 71¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 43¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MOUZ 41¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY Enjoy 45¢ $15 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 60¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $21 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 49¢ $15 4h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 67¢ $23 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 81¢ $15 6h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 85¢ $5 6h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $22 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $13 8h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 68¢ $15 10h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL Yes 33¢ $1 10h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 45¢ $23 10h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 71¢ $15 11h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 68¢ $15 11h
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International North America BUY GamerLegion 93¢ $15 11h
Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs the bug (+1.5) BUY GamerLegion 98¢ $7 11h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL Yes 35¢ $6 11h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL Yes 45¢ $6 12h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $8 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $19 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $23 24h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 32¢ $11 25h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 93¢ $15 26h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 73¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.78 · official $145.78 (match) · 65 history records