Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x29fb…de76
weather · 143 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$685 -45%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$698 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$54
Realized−$698
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses41 / 100
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage32d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 141 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$96
14 days−$216
30 days−$698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $41 $50 +$9 (+21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 0¢ 68¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 26? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 25? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? No 68¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 26? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 31? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 27? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 27? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on May 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 29? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on May 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or higher on May 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on May 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 30¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 24? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 8? Jun 07 $19 −$18 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 7? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 06 $39 −$38 -97%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 06 $70 −$69 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 31? May 30 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 31? May 30 $11 −$11 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 52% −$529
crypto 29% +$36
other 12% −$85
politics 7% −$106
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-58.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -8.7% -17.4% 80% 25% -26.6%
≤30d 141 -54.3% -58.7% 29% 12% -53.4%
≤90d 141 -54.3% -58.7% 29% 12% -53.4%
all 141 -54.3% -58.7% 29% 12% -53.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.7% 12% -53.4%
10% -62.6% 7% -57.8%
15% -66.3% 4% -61.9%
20% -69.6% 1% -65.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.91 · official $51.97 · 576 history records