Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29fd…e6ab world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
politics 25% −$2
other 17% $0
crypto 12% +$1
tech 4% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -35.5% -41.7% 0% 0% -41.7%
≤90d 5 +49.0% +34.8% 60% 20% -10.5%
all 32 +7.5% -2.8% 31% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 6% -9.8%
10% -12.1% 6% -18.4%
15% -20.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -28.4% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage255d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $15 −$5 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $27 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $36 +$4 +10%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Nov 18 $1 $0 -12%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 31 $1 $0 +2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 25 $3 $0 -3%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 18 $1 $0 -12%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 18 $12 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 18 $4 +$1 +24%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 13 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Oct 13 $21 +$1 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 7¢ $2 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 7¢ $2 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 11¢ $14 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $5 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $34 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $7 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $29 32d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 32d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 32d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 32d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 33d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $1 34d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 2¢ $2 34d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 188d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 2¢ $1 216d
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.34 · official $37.72 (match) · 135 history records