Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29fe…1c1b crypto 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$363 (+4%) realized +$390 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%60W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day87.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -0.6% -10.0% 41% 34% -9.1%
≤30d 147 -1.3% -10.7% 41% 33% -9.1%
≤90d 147 -1.3% -10.7% 41% 33% -9.1%
all 147 -1.3% -10.7% 41% 33% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 33% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 27% -17.8%
15% -27.0% 22% -25.7%
20% -34.2% 17% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$15 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$390
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses60 / 87
Open positions3
Markets (closed)147 / 150
History coverage24d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day87.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 58¢ 81¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 44¢ 18¢ $35 $15 −$21 (-58%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 54¢ 34¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-38%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$12 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $118 −$8 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$21 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $187 +$42 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$14 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$17 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$13 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +47%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$9 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $108 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $177 +$9 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $162 +$44 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $118 +$63 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $119 −$96 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$40 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $173 +$31 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$16 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$74 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$8 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $275 −$63 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $12 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $48.92 · 2238 history records